Self Immolation Part II

July 30, 2004: A day that will live in infamy (for Mets fans)--Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano. I was so distraught and upset. The sheer stupidity and senselessness... Mets fans never thought it would happen again.

November 20, 2007. It did.

A Lastings Milledge ZiPS career projection:


I'm disappointed, but I'm taking this a bit better than in 2004. Something about the cratering of the Knicks, the predictability of the Giants second half fades and the embarresMET that was September 2007 desensitizes one to such folderol. But really trade the best player now with the most potential in the future who is the cheapest and is cost controlled for the longest for a decent but not great replacement (Ryan Church, who admittedly has some chance of matching Milledge in 2008. not so much in the future) and a catching mediocrity owed $10 million over 2 years living off a defensive reputation that's been declining for 3+ years.

Really?

Home networking

Following up on Jot's chastisement of my use of Zone Alarm, i've started looking at routers and creating a home network. I fall into the category of people who didn't think a router was necessary for only one computer, as I can't say I was fully aware of the additional security benefits it provides. But a home network seems like it would benefit us a bit so that that come next spring when LBA arrives both of us can feasibly work from home at the same time. I was under the impression any of the cable feeds for cox could be used to establish an internet connection, but i guess that's not the case because of IP address hangups? (note to clarify: my meaning was that if we needed/wanted to connect two computers, we could just get a second modem rather than a router, but, as JT notes, cox may have issues with that, and there are additional benefits to the router than having 2 modems)

Anyway, in the choice between wired or wireless it does seem like the latter is the way to go. In the handful of hours I've spent on the topic so far, I've noted two things:

1. Routers, by consumer reviews, are only slightly higher thought of than internet security software. Dave Pogue notes that up to 30% of networking gear is returned. This gives me pause of buying by my preferred method of shopping (online.)
   
2. It doesn't seem worthwhile to spend much time researching routers (but I do it anyway), as it seems common and easy to settle for the Corolla of routers, the Linksys WRT 54G (or GS), particularly since i don't have the desire to spend too much on it.

Actually, in the case of the latter point, I think I did find something better, the Buffalo G54, but the company has an injunction to prevent it from selling in the US at the moment (and the sales price might be higher than I think it is). So that brings things back to the Linksys I guess.

I haven't delved into network adapters yet, but I'm under the impression i don't really need to as the router will be next to the PC, so i might as well leave that wired. So then the only obstacle is making sure Joanne's work laptop can connect to the network.

Good times.

9 to 5

The following unattributed stat was referenced in a post commentin on Ben Stein's yahoo column about people's inability to actually work:

Studies show that most Americans only contribute 2 solid hours of productivity to their employers during a typical 8-9 hour workday. Email, internet, computer games, phone calls, chatting, work-gossip, and meals are what we really spend our time, attention, and energy on.

I'm not sure I bring that average up.


Who is the dumbest Hero? Suresh? Peter? Maya? Clair? Elle? Other?


A simple fish recipe that's quite good: saute a clove or two of garlic in 1/4 cup of olive oil. Salt & pepper cod (or other white fish) fillets and add to skillet. Cook on one side for 3-4 minutes (a little below medium heat). Flip, and add a good amount of fresh chopped parsley. Fry for another 8-10 minutes and serve with the green "sauce". This was tonight's dinner and it was very tasty.


My verdict on HD DVD: it's nice, but I see the primary value of the player as a very good upconverter--i think i see the difference, meaning it's scaler is better than our TV's. The main thing that hurts the cause is the lack of available media and my disinclination to upgrade the media I have. But, with 10 free movies attached to the A3, it becomes a better deal than pretty much any other upconverter, though there are a couple of trade-offs, namely player startup (it's slow because it's booting an OS) and command response (ie there's a small lag in response time from the remote).


So if you're a market timer investor, at what point do you invest in a banking/financials fund such as Vanguard Financials ETF or PowerShares Banking ETF? The key, of course, would be the discipline to hold for at least 5-7 years. This may run counter to principles of asset allocation, as creating a new position where none existed before demands a better reason for change than simply "oh it's cheap, it can only go up!"


What's a better use of time & money? Simply spending the $40 to renew the subscription to your internet security provider of choice (I'm currently using Zone Alarm), or scavenging around for a new program with mail-in rebates that makes it free, though one can never be sure how one's system will react to the new program?

LBA news

I think this runs to the negative side--on Friday we felt kicking. You know what that means... soccer player! UGH!!

Joanne's trying to stay positive. She thinks it might have been a backhand. I'm not so sure...

The Quest for the Perfect Sound and Sight

This is a guest post by the lovely and talented Joanne Aspinall:

We've had the attached cartoon on our refrigerator for a few years now. I thought it was fitting. In the past, whenever Keith has talked about electronics using technical jargon, it went over my head. Heck, I call the subwoofer the "boom box". It still is over my head to a certain extent, but I'm definitely not bored to sleep by it. How could I be with 5 speakers blasting good sound at me? :-)

The idea of getting a plasma tv was more of a redecorating move than an upgrade for me. It opened up room to make a domino effect of changes (move the desk out of the kitchen, which allowed us to move the small table out of the dining room, which allowed us to get a nice dining room table). However, the picture quality is just amazing. I remember when we first got the tv we would watch travel shows on PBS, and I would just be in awe at the pictures of the Alps, or whatever they might be showing [AJU: that was more a function of the show being on right after 24]. Nature and sports shows are, imo, the biggest benefactors of HD [AJU: Heroes looks pretty good too, i think].

Which leads into the HD DVD. You already get some upgrade to watching a regular DVD on an HD tv versus non-HD tv, so would the DVD player be worth it? I think so. The picture is better, and the price tag not all that high (except for the DVDs themselves, but that will probably just change our renting versus buying habits, which I think is a good thing [AJU: Netflix here we come!]. There's also some other features on the player that are cool, but I'll let Keith get into those if he wants to [AJU: Surprised LTJ mentioned this--the main "cool" feature I've used is the menu access while still watching the movie, but that's HD DVDs only, not the player]. When we were figuring out which free HD DVDs to get along with our player (that was the deal through Best Buy), my first instinct was to get a nature DVD. I'm glad I decided to keep with that. We got a Galapagos DVD, which, although I haven't seen it yet, should be cool in HD. [AJU: That's a minor misrepresentation. LTJ wanted scenery, not necessarily a nature doc. I found Galapagos as one of the free option and kept it, ignoring LTJ's statement "oh, you don't have to get that."]

Sound. We finally decided where to put our surround speakers, and once Keith figured out the correct settings, we were both blown away! It turns out there was a setting wrong somewhere for the last few years, so now ALL the speakers have better sound, not just the surrounds [AJU: two factors were at play here. The DVD player had some audio output settings. The dolby digital setting was right; the DTS wrong, but I always select DTS when its available. The second is we didn't have the full 5.1 hooked up, and I discovered last week that playing 5.1 without all the necessary speakers causes the AV receiver to downmix the audio stream into Pro Logic, limiting dynamic range and absolutely killing the subwoofer]. I also really enjoy the surround sound when just listening to music [AJU: Joanne is referring to DVD music discs and the 2 SACDs we have; ie multichannel audio, not matrixed stereo. If we off the old DVD player, we lose some of that capability (the SACD, of which we have two), but we're not that invested in it.]. It definitely adds a dimension to things that were missing. Keith also went ahead and spent some extra money to upgrade the mains and center speaker with some new "bamboo" speakers [AJU: Why quotes? They are bamboo!]. I don't think I'll be capable of noticing the upgrade in sound quality, but they do look nice. I'm not sure those were worth the extra money, but that leads me into my conclusion [AJU: As I've previously mentioned I think, my income from eBay/Half/Amazon is not that far off from the recent outflow. Creative accounting maybe, but still. I do concede some concerns of whether we'll hear the full difference, but I did get them at a discount].

Keith has always dreamed about having a quality theater. One of his friend's parents have a theater room complete with projector, all the speakers, recliners, etc. I know Keith was jealous [AJU: "envious" is more appropriate I think]. Although we don't have a separate room that we can make completely dark, I think we have a pretty darn good setup at this point (perhaps a comfier couch for guests would be the only thing we could add). Heck, we even have stadium style seating! Plus, I think the timing is good. I was thinking of taking a fancy vacation as one last splurge before LBA arrives. I think this is good (and longer lasting) substitute splurge. Besides, the look on Keith's face last night once everything was hooked up was well worth it all!

Poor China

Literally.

The Financial Times had this yesterday:

In a little-noticed mid-summer announcement, the Asian Development Bank presented official survey results indicating China's economy is smaller and poorer than established estimates say... when the World Bank announces its expected PPP data revisions (Purchasing Power Parity, a means to compare Gross National Products based off of cost-of-living factors and exchange rates) later this year, China's economy will turn out to be 40 per cent smaller than previously stated.

The number of people in China living below the World Bank's dollar-a-day poverty line is 300m - three times larger than currently estimated. The ADB's announcement also indicates that the number of dollar-a-day poor in India is closer to 800m than the current estimate of 400m.

That's a rather large change(!); the result of little change in the summary data since the late 1980's.

You may have read China is the world's second largest economy and will surpass the US (at current growth rate) in 20xx. Surprisingly, even with a 40% reduction, China would still be second by the GDP PPP standard, but it would be much closer to Japan and India (3 & 4) than the US (1). Per capita ranking would fall from ranking in the 80s to the 110s.

But those are just statistics.

What the reduction of real wealth means is a change the tenor of Chinese international relations. The view of China as a military threat is likely reduced (fewer resources), but that might galvanize Taiwan in its desire for independence. That effectively raises the specter of engagement. The reduced wealth also means a more limited ability for China to respond to other issues, such as their growing environmental concerns.

It's possible this isn't as big of a deal as I think, as it doesn't change their growth trajectory--it just changes where they are at at the moment. It does mean, however, China has to sustain the double digit growth it has experienced for most of the the last 2-3 decades for an even longer period of time to become "competitive" with the US. This presents its own issues of a greater wealth disparity, an overheated economy, inflation, etc.

I found this through Marginal Revolution which often has a fairly educated discussion on topics. Check in if you want more insight than I can provide...

Quickies

• When Joanne tells people we're having a boy, people are excited and congratulatory. Then she's "so we're getting a little Keith." The tendency has been for the listener to pause and then say "oh... uh... that's great." What does that mean?
  

• Re my wrongness. Jot made several valid points in the comments, though I feel the "massive readership" comment is a bit sarcastic. Just a bit. Anywho, we'll be retaining LBA. The "G" confusion did occur to me after posting as well. Not sure what I was thinking about re guy v boy.

• Re name. We already have one, though I'm still willing to ponder others; Joanne less so. The longer it's the only one on the list, the more likely it will stick.

• I came across this Money piece on the subprime fallout which notes Merril Lynch's subprime exposure ($41 billion in subprime collateralized debt obligations and subprime mortgage bonds, as of June) is greater than its current market capitalization. I had a draft post on this, but realized I had nothing of merit to include beyond the article.

• How do become president for life? Offer the masses a shorter work! Brilliant move!

• We (royally) hooked up the HD-DVD player last name and popped in the Bourne Identity and did comparisons to the regular DVD. The HD was noticeably better in an A-B freeze frame comparison visually, about the same sonically (I did have an audio setting wrong though). However, in motion the difference was there, but less of a big deal. I've seen varying opinions on whether BI is a good test of the format--but that begs the question how useful the tech is on our setup (viewing distance greater than what is considered optimal).
  

• I'm trying to convince Joanne to do a guess post for her thoughts on my recent HT splurging--the last one for a very long time methinks. Not for a critique on the expenditure, but the experience.
  

• A confession: I am still a Knicks fan. Is that a sign of loyalty or stupidity?

• I got an new spoof email (a spoof being an email from a seemingly legitimate site (such as eBay, Amazon or your bank) that link to something more unsavory). The one I got was from Yahoo's Greeting Card service. I actually clicked on it at first, thinking it might be from someone sending in a New Year Fest bid, but I came to my senses and closed the page before it loaded. The actual text link was to a Thanksgiving card. The embedded link not to a card (I'm guessing).
  

24: The Pilot

Disillusioning experience

Did you know Thel and Bill beat their kids?

Did you know their names are Thel(ma) and Bill? That's what I thought...

I was wrong

Joanne used to get on my case for never being willing to say the three words every woman loves to hear. My retort for her to provide an example of when I was wrong never seemed to go over well. Not even once. I should note she never did provide an example.

But I digress...



I was wrong. (Happy Joanne?)

And so was the Chinese Gender Chart!

As a postscript, I'd also announcing a name change (pending Joanne's OK): LBA (Lil Baby Aspinall) will henceforth be referred to as LGA (Lil Guy Aspinall).

EDIT TO ADD: I often make the assumption that people know what I'm talking when, in reality, they don't. Joanne was expecting a boy, me a girl. Hence, I am wrong.

DVD Deals

You're probably not as interested in the shiny plastic format as I am, but with Christmas coming up, a couple of deal opportunities if you know someone who is:

1. Deep Discount. Use the code "dvdtalk" to get 20% off your order. DVDs only. Pre Orders excluded. Ends 11/25.

2. DVD Planet. Use the code "20offsale" for 20% off. Ends 11/21.

DD and DVDP are very price competitive. DD generally has an edge in mainstream stuff, DVDP in genre (anime, criterion collection, HD formats) and also has a used section

3. Barnes & Noble. This one is a bit more involved and it ends Sunday (11/12). If you are or become a BN member ($25 annual cost), you can use the code "P7N6J9K" to get 50% any one item if you pay via MasterCard. Interestingly, the 50% discount is applied to the online price, but subtracted from the members price. So a $200 price with a $180 members price is $80 plus the $25 membership and tax, so about $115. A high dollar item maximizes savings obviously. Usable on most anything at the site, but again, only one item gets the discount.

If you want to see how good of a deal you're getting, check out DVD Price Search for low prices on the web.

Quotable

THis is utterly random: What's the most famous television quote of all time? AFI was nice enough to have a movie list, but what about TV? Is there a more famous/better line than "As God is my witness, I thought turkeys could fly." Does anything top that?

Apparently a lot does, as it doesn't even make TV Land's Top 100. It seems like everything is catchphrases or news quotes, which isn't what I'm looking for. The former is repetitive and the latter isn't reliant on the television format. Still, the list should have made room for the turkeys!

Unsavviness

The self-proclaimed HDTVexpert chimes in with a comparison of Blu-Ray, HD DVD and the Oppo I previously mentioned:

At normal viewing distances, the close-up shots of faces and floating objects, appeared to have near-equal detail and texture, a testament to the quality of the video scaling engine in the Oppo. Objects somewhat farther away were slightly softer in red laser, while there were clear differences between the red and blue laser pressings when it came to showing fine details. Those differences became less apparent as I relocated 10 feet away from the Panasonic plasma (50") and 16 feet from the projection screen. In fact, at those points, the red and blue laser pressings seemed nearly equal in overall sharpness, except with shots with lots of background detail were seen.

I only mention this because after 4+ days of debating whether or not to take the plunge on the this weekend's deals, I finally did. The unsavvy part was waiting (and reading!), rather than just doing, ie, the first deal I came across would have fit our needs best (using a very loose definition of needs). In the end, Joanne ok'd the $7.50 non-refundable expense while I decide if the plunge is necessary. The above review is somewhat damning as my vision is questionable and our viewing distance is over 10', which means little difference between the Oppo and A3. Of course, we don't have an upconverting player yet either, and the A3 comes with 10 movies for $50 more. Hmmm...

I'm going to segue into something unrelated, but completely on point. I'm in desperate need of an information diet. The amount of time I spent on this since Thursday is completely ridiculous. Actually, sad is the better word. You may have heard the phrase before, which has become more en vogue because of Tim Ferriss's The Four Hour Workweek. Ferriss promotes an 20-80 principle--also known as Pareto's law-- which states 20% of activities contribute 80% of benefit, so focus on that 20%. Naturally, this demands a good understanding of what is important versus what some fervor on the internet/other entity convinces you (or me in this case) is important. But in terms of information, how much is necessary (ie important) versus noise (time wasting)? One blog I read puts the Information Diet into the perspective of consumption versus production. All that time spend on consuming information (which can be very (time) filling) can be spent on other productive means (writing a blog entry for example, rather than reading one). And I'm simply not good at that.

As for another tangential leap, there was various levels of shock at my goldmine--who spends $500+ on 10 CDs? Or who even still buys CDs? While I have some limits in terms of value, I am very prone to getting whipped into a "have to have" mentality because of random internet message boards. I find it odd that I'm fairly good at not buckling to individual peer pressure, but random groups of internet posters can do me in. That's probably even more unsavvy. But isn't this how something like this happens? People get sucked into some form of peer group that places some level of importance on some commodity or activity and then is willing to commit resources that others outside of the group deem unnecessary/outrageous.

I blame this all on one thing: disposable income.

More on giving

First, some responses to comments.

Jot noted "How can I contribute that maximizes the benefit to the charity with little or no effect on myself." I assume he's referring to the Credit for Contributions to Charities That Provide Assistance to the Working Poor, which I mentioned back in April. But it can also refer to the Tax Credit for Donations to Private School Tuition. Since both offer Arizona Tax Credits, you get back all the money you give on your AZ return, but still get to take a federal deduction. I'm not necessarily enamored with this as tax policy, particularly the latter (higher limits and less "charitable"), but it does have the effect of reducing the financial burden on givers, as it provides free money.

Following up on Joanne's (kind of): our giving for this year is at about a dozen charities--about 1/3 health, 1/4 religious, 1/4 local and one global.

As for Ken's points, they all seem spot on. Our issue is that we're doing our charity backwards. By that I mean we are establishing an annual giving amount that we're comfortable making and then figuring out how to allot that, rather than finding causes we are truly passionate about and figuring out how much we can give. Re the volunteer work, Joanne has volunteered at Paz de Christo for 3 years or so, but I don't think we've made a monetary contribution and I'm not sure why. She also has been a Big Sister in a school program for quite a while, and we give BBBS a small amount.

But the real point I wanted to interject with this follow up is the use of establishing one's own Charitable Fund. Fidelity, Vanguard, Schwab and others all have programs in which you can place funds (cash, appreciated stock) and then make contributions from that.

Among the advantages:

• You can contribute now, but take your time selecting the charities which will benefit.
  
• You can donate appreciated stock, get the deduction for present value and not pay any capital gains (as you would with any stock gift)
  
• You get an immediate tax deduction.
  
• You can easily make a number of smaller contributions in cases where a charity has issues managing single, large donations.
  
• Many charities have difficulty accepting noncash contributions.
  
• You have the option of making truly anonymous donations.
  
• You simplify your tax reporting through consolidation of your charitable activities.
• Greater flexibility in tax planning.
  

The companies do charge some fees (under 1% a year), but that is largely paid for by the investment vehicles in the funds (assuming not a down market). I looked into this early this year as a possible option to move appreciated stock to avoid capital gains, but our prospective tax situation doesn't really require that anymore. The other issue is account minimums and activity requirements, which I reviewed at the time, but I don't know how well it fits with our giving plan (if we're allowed to call it that).

What I do

I'm generally reticent to discuss my job, as despite the big picture scope my unit has, I tend to think of it as task-oriented, thus sucking all the "glory" out of it, and I haven't had enough other good jobs to determine how normal that is.

So if you were wondering what I do (I'm an analyst in ASU's Office of Economic Affairs), yesterday's feature in the Arizona Republic , "Opportunities essential for drawing 'knowledge workers" hits on a lot of topics/culture I deal with (it's disconcerting that no one from my office is mentioned, though):

"If Phoenix decides to swap innovation for growth as its core economic driver, finding people with the ideas and thinking skills that lead to new discoveries will be as important as cheap land and affordable homes have been for the past 60 years.

'Knowledge worker' is the term applied across industries for people who create, research, develop and invent. Knowledge economies ride on their work as ideas are turned into new products and services. Knowledge workers may be scientists, engineers, designers, architects, high-level managers, artists or business entrepreneurs. Competition for creative people in these fields is substantial. Cities that want to develop knowledge economies need to attract them with both career and lifestyle opportunities. "

Most of the work I do (60% or so) deals with these issues as it pertains to creating a world class innovation center at SkySong. I started my current position about 3 days before the ASU-Scottsale announcement of the project (in May 2004), and the majority of my job has been contributing to the conceptualization, marketing and development of the SkySong.

Is that good enough?

Winning a format war

As you may or may not know, Sony & Toshiba are engaged in a "death match" for the successor to DVD: Blu-ray versus HD-DVD. Though I don't follow it the subject too closely, as I have no desire to pick a side (more specifically, little desire to choose the loser), Blueray has had the advantage for the most part, based on greater availability of content and by making the Play Station 3 Blu-ray compatible (and a cooler name?). HD-DVD has the advantage in quality (from what I've read), price of player, more features and fewer Digital Rights Management issues.

Now, with the holidays approaching, Toshiba is pushing the hardware price angle a lot. Best Buy has the Toshiba A-2 for $99.99 (in store only) and Walmart will have it on sale tomorrow for the same price. And the mail in rebate for 5 free movies is still applicable. So that really helps the cause. It should be noted that the price drop is to clear out stock for the to-be-released A-3, which is largely the same player with some firmware grades and interface improvements (and which will be on sale at Sears for $170 on Black Friday)

I just asked Joanne if she wanted to get one, and she actually said yes (which surprised me a bit, based on my other consumer electronics wants/gets). The player is backward compatible (plays regular DVDs), and it's up-converting. When I talked with Joanne, I thought it wasn't. But it is in fact. And that's the option she finds appealing--as it would make our existing DVDs look better (supposedly).

I have read, however, that upconverting may not be all that, as an HDTV has a scaler that does the job anyway (taking the 480p from the dvd player and making if fit its resolution of 720p or 1080i, or whatever). Then the only question is does the $1500 TV or the $100 DVD player have a better scaler? Dunno.

In terms of just a regular up-converting player, my want there would be the Oppo 980H, as Oppo has an excellent reputation for its upconverting players and its players are universal--region free and playing pretty much any shiny disc format you put in it (except Blu-ray and HD DVD), which is key because I'm pondering buying into the "dying" format that is SACD (mainly classical and jazz releases). I only have two at the moment, and they're both hybrids (meaning they have a regular CD layer), so it's not like my investment there is great.

End result? This leaves me in my normal consumer electronics conundrum--can I actually tell what is good, and is the difference worth the cost? The fact that the A-2 does upconvert changes the calculus a bit, and I'd have to decide if higher resolution/multi channel music is worth it--I do think it's better, but I have some question how much value I place on that better quality.

EDIT: Local Best Buys are sold out apparently. That was reasonably fast.