10 days early

Apparently ARod isn't using the full 10 days after the end of the World Series to opt out--he's doing it now.

Interesting points about this:

• He's opting out of the last three years of the contract, about ~$81 million
• The Yankees no longer receive money from the rangers, about $21 million
• The Yankees reportedly were offering a 5 year, $150 million extension, in other words 8 years and $231 million (at a cost of $210 million to NYY)
• The Yankees have proclaimed they will not renegotiate with ARod if he opts out.
  

This can be taken to mean he/Scott Boras believe getting $30 million/year for 7-8 years is not a problem. This despite there not being a contract signed in baseball the last five years that averaged even $20 million/year (Manny Ramirez and Jason Giambi were the last two I believe to get that amount).

So this speaks to a couple of things. First, baseball revenues are exploding. By 2009, the only parks built before 1990 will be Wrigley, Fenway, the Rogers Center (Toronto), both LA parks and Kauffman Stadium. Baseball has caught up with football in terms of revenues. How this happened is somewhat perplexing, as the games are largely unwatchable (fox quality and game length). Arod gets 30+. Johan Santana will probably clear $25 million. Heck, Aaron Rowand is looking for $14 million per and is likely to get it (Lil Sarge got $11 mil per after all). So get used to the obscene amounts of cash free agents are looking for and getting.

Second is recency bias. In the past four years Arod has had 2 historically great seasons, though I don't recall his 2005 getting the attention this past year has received. But he's now 32. A $30 million contract takes that as a baseline; the expected level of performance. But that's the peak, not the average. His 2005 and 2007 may be worth $30 mil. 2004 and 2006 are not. Barry Bonds excepted, players tend not to put up career bests in their 30s. But this is the norm for free agent contracts--there's a lot of payment made for past performance. The signing team, though is much more likely to get more 2006s than 2007s.

There's conjecture that Boras has a "wink wink" deal, such as the JD Drew deal last winter, but that seems unlikely. The Yankees would be very likely to press forward on any tampering charges (particularly if its the Red Sox), and any chicanery that way would get Boras barred from being an agent, and he doesn't want that.

If the Yankees hold to their pledge not to negotiate, that takes out a big player, but 7 years ago, ARod got 10/252 from Texas, so that may not matter much. I'm just not sure who gets into that territory other than the Yankees, Red Sox and perhaps the Cubs (depending on the splash the new owner wants to make) though. A lot of speculation about LA, but both of those seem questionable to me as both teams have in the past few years eschewed contracts longer than 5 years. The Mets have his positions covered. I don't even want to contemplate Arod in the Philly infield. Baltimore, Toronto, Detroit are all possibles. Just based on dollars and needs, I think the Yankees get back in it and compete with the Red Sox and it becomes clear there are now two Evil Empires in the world.