November 20, 2007. It did.
A Lastings Milledge ZiPS career projection:
I'm disappointed, but I'm taking this a bit better than in 2004. Something about the cratering of the Knicks, the predictability of the Giants second half fades and the embarresMET that was September 2007 desensitizes one to such folderol. But really trade the best player now with the most potential in the future who is the cheapest and is cost controlled for the longest for a decent but not great replacement (Ryan Church, who admittedly has some chance of matching Milledge in 2008. not so much in the future) and a catching mediocrity owed $10 million over 2 years living off a defensive reputation that's been declining for 3+ years.
Really?
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Question about projected stats: Have you had any opportunity to look at similar projections for other players from 5+ years ago to see if they are generally valid, or not?
Anecdotal evidence suggests that players that exhibit "promise for the future" oftne do not deliver on that, due to injuries or other factors. For instance, what were the projections for Kerry Wood after his first 2 years? Conversely, there may also be "late bloomers" whose later career stats are well above what might have been expected of them earlier.
Not to say that Milledge isn't a talented player who may well be missed, just that judging the success of a trade before any of the players have stepped on a field for their new teams might be premature. Not that I mean to give you any hope, since a) I just don't like the Mets, and b) having hope only makes it hurt worse later.
I've actually been entirely unimpressed with Milledge thus far. More disappointment from him this past year (his second, no?) than from, say, Justin Upton (in his first). Not that I've paid a lot of attention to either of them, so maybe I really don't know.
But c'mon -- the Mets went into this offseason needing a catcher, and then they got one! Oh, wait.
To think the Milledge deal was thisclose to being really funny ...at least for those of us who don't take baseball that seriously anymore. The column on the right contains the nut graf.
Projects are a toy, so they're not gospel. And the posted Milledge projection is likely his very optimistic projection--the chances of him having that good of a career are slim. But that chance is not worth giving up for a well below average catcher and a good platoon outfielder. Hitting projections are generally viewed as more reliable than pitching because the injury risk is much less.
Lastings Milledge is 5 months older than Delmon Young. He's exhibited similar power, but more patience than Delmon Young, but has hit fewer singles. Still, his
2006 season in the international league was better than DY in a tougher hitting environment (norfolk vs Durham) . Lastings Milledge has not shown anger management issues that result in throwing a bat at an umpire and getting suspended for 50 games. His issues are, as an 18 year old, having sex with his girlfriend, high fiving fans after hitting a game tying homer in the ninth, having dreadlocks and bling, and producing a crude rap song. He turned 22 in April.
Delmon Young was just traded for Matt Garza, a very good pitching prospect, Jason Bartlett, an average hitting, excellent fielding shortstop and Juan Rincon, a rubber armed, but declining reliever.
Lastings Milledge is every bit the prospect as Delmon Young and can play a passable center field. Lastings Milledge was parlayed into a much inferior package. If Church/Schneider is the best package, his value is/was much greater to the Mets as its right fielder than as trade bait.
In Lastings Milledge's "unimpressive" age 22 season, he ranked 17th among 40 players with a baseball age of 23 or younger who got at least 100 ABs in 2007 in OPS+ (an park adjusted onbase+slugging rating with 100 as league average). His isolated power (slugging-batting average) also ranked 17th, just behind Matt Kemp and ahead of Jeff Franceour, Alex Gordon and Delmon Young. Being less impressive than Justin Upton, one of the uber-prospects of baseball is not a crime.
The information available at this time show little to indicate the Mets have any reason to expect to win this trade in any year except 2008, and that is anything but a guarantee, which it should be if are very likely to lose from 2009-20xx. This trade can only be successful if Lastings Milledge fails (or Ryan Church goes Luis Gonzales). His track record does not indicate he will.
First word in the previous comments is supposed to be "projections".
And I was remiss to say more about Milledge's 17/40 rank. The straight mean OPS+ was 97.1; Milledge 105. So while than only looks slightly above average, the point is that it is a very select universe of comparables. All the other 23 or younger players didn't even get those at bats in the pros.
Of the 11 22 year olds, he was the second youngest (Jarrod Saltamacchia is younger), and he ranked fith behind BJ Upton, Matt Kemp, Troy Tulowitzki and Ryan Zimmerman.
Here's a list of the 23 and unders sorted by OPS+ (note: I'm including batting average because of the double effect it has on OPS+, ie a high, non-repeatable average (Matt Kemp) posts OPS to a higher level than it otherwise might be. Milledges isolated patience and power is the same as Kemp's):
Player Ag AB BA OPS
Prince Fielder 23 573 0.288 156
Ryan Braun 23 451 0.324 153
Hanley Ramirez 23 639 0.332 145
B.J. Upton 22 474 0.3 136
James Loney 23 344 0.331 131
Jacoby Ellsbury 23 116 0.353 131
Travis Buck 23 285 0.288 130
Jeremy Hermida 23 429 0.296 125
Matt Kemp 22 292 0.342 125
Nick Markakis 23 637 0.3 121
Dustin Pedroia 23 520 0.317 112
Mark Reynolds 23 366 0.279 110
Troy Tulowitzki 22 609 0.291 108
Howie Kendrick 23 338 0.322 108
Ryan Zimmerman 22 653 0.266 107
Lastings Milledge 22 184 0.272 105
Billy Butler 21 329 0.292 105
Jeff Francoeur 23 642 0.293 103
Asdrubal Cabrera 21 159 0.283 101
Brian McCann 23 504 0.27 100
Kurt Suzuki 23 213 0.249 99
Delmon Young 21 645 0.288 91
Chris Young 23 569 0.237 89
Melky Cabrera 22 545 0.273 89
Elijah Dukes 23 184 0.19 88
Alex Gordon 23 543 0.247 87
Jarrod Saltalamacchi 22 167 0.251 87
Nate Schierholtz 23 112 0.304 85
Tony Abreu 22 166 0.271 80
Jesus Flores 22 180 0.244 78
Adam Lind 23 290 0.238 77
Miguel Montero 23 214 0.224 72
Jose Lopez 23 524 0.252 71
Dioner Navarro 23 388 0.227 70
Justin Upton 19 140 0.221 62
Carlos Gomez 21 125 0.232 56
Felix Pie 22 177 0.215 53
Alejandro De Aza 23 144 0.229 50
Erick Aybar 23 194 0.237 50
Alexi Casilla 22 189 0.222 39
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